Bangalore South Prediction !!!

Greetings  ,

I did sit on the  data available from the election commission website on the polling data . These are few of my observations and I wanted to share I have taken the last may 2013 elections as the base elections to drive out thinking .

In May 2013 Congress polled 4,23,806 votes out of all 8 ACs , BJP polled 3,42,355  giving Congress a clear lead of approximately 80,000 votes . JDS polled 1,30,796 votes doing well in Chickpet , Basavanagudi , Padmanabhnagar and govindraj nagar polling over 20,000 votes .  Congress polled less in Jayanagar owing to poor selection of candidate . Significant votes were polled by chickpet JDS candidates which are minority votes polled by zameer ahmed khan for JDS in chickpet .

Last election BJP polled 437953 and Congress polled 400341  giving Ananth kumar a lead of 37,000 votes , that too in a hardcore yeddy wave with BJP having 5 MLA’s , even padmanabhnagar  gave lead to krishan byre gowda . JDS with prof radha Krishna as their candidate and a noted educationist they polled about 27,000 votes , this time I am giving them around 20,000 votes . The AAP factor has been taken in and I guess they should take approximately 30-35,000 votes in bangalore south .

The highlight this time is more than 1.25 lakh votes  new votes have been polled compared to  2013 may . Big voting difference is coming up in BTM , over 24,000 more votes have been polled , are these minority pockets ? , need to check this .The best wave for Ananth was 1999 vajapayee wave where he polled 4.5 lakh votes  and all other elections his votes have been coming down , last time in 2009 BJP yeddy wave he got 4,37 lakh votes . This time in 2014 for best consideration we need to take up  Congress and BJP votes at 10.6 lakh votes shared between both .

Even if I give anath 1-1.2 lakh additional votes on account of  “Modi Factor” from  the last assembly poll in 2013 where he got 3,42,355 , despite he suffering from huge anti incumbency , minority  consolidation , disengaged BJP workers and general apathy he should best poll 4.6 - 4.8 lakh votes . That leaves congress-nandan  anywhere around 5.8- 6 lakh votes to factor . I believe it would be a miracle and need a mega wave for BJP to touch 5 lakhs votes !!!.

For congress from 4,23,806 they got in 2013 ,  the significant factor here is the 1.3 lakh votes of JDS and where would they go ? , traditionally  JDS votes would go to congress in lok sabha , this has been a observed trend . I believe we have polled anywhere 5 – 5.5 lakh votes . With 50,000 – 60,000 votes ear marked for JDS and AAP I believe nandan should sail through comfortably .

I have given significantly  more votes to BJP than they polled in 2013 , like in padmanabhnagar I have given them 70,000 votes from 53,000 they polled in 2013 , given them 95000 in bommanahalli from 86,000 , 50,000 in chickpet from 31,000 (Very unlikely for them to reach) , 60,000 in jayanagar from 43,000 in 2013 , 50,000 from 21000 in BTM !!!!!!! .

Adding to the  positive campaign a united congress ran and excellent social media & web campaign , nandan should sail through well .

	Votes Polled in 2013	Votes Polled in 2014	Diff In Votes
Govindraj Nagar	131237	141579	10342
Padmanabhnagar	128353	146054	17701
Bommanahally	174734	191109	16375
Chickpet	108814	120075	11261
Basavanagudi	103654	122999	19345
Vijayanagar	133197	144904	11707
Jayanagar	95565	111212	15647
BTM Layout	110486	135097	24611
	986040	1113029	126989

342355

495000

130796

	Congress 2013	Congress 2014	BJP 2013	BJP 2014	JDS 2013
Govindraj Nagar	72654	85000	30194	50000	20662
Padmanabhnagar	33557	55000	53680	70000	26272
Bommanahally	60700	75000	86552	95000	10621
Chickpet	44714	65000	31655	50000	24382
Basavanagudi	21588	50000	43683	60000	24163
Vijayanagar	76891	75000	44249	60000	4253
Jayanagar	43990	42000	31678	60000	12097
BTM Layout	69712	80000	20664	50000	8346
	423806	527000	342355	495000	130796

Nandan should poll anywhere  from 5.2 lakhs – 5.6 lakh votes  and sail home comfortably .