Bangalore South Prediction !!!

Greetings  ,

I did sit on the  data available from the election commission website on the polling data . These are few of my observations and I wanted to share I have taken the last may 2013 elections as the base elections to drive out thinking .

In May 2013 Congress polled 4,23,806 votes out of all 8 ACs , BJP polled 3,42,355  giving Congress a clear lead of approximately 80,000 votes . JDS polled 1,30,796 votes doing well in Chickpet , Basavanagudi , Padmanabhnagar and govindraj nagar polling over 20,000 votes .  Congress polled less in Jayanagar owing to poor selection of candidate . Significant votes were polled by chickpet JDS candidates which are minority votes polled by zameer ahmed khan for JDS in chickpet .

Last election BJP polled 437953 and Congress polled 400341  giving Ananth kumar a lead of 37,000 votes , that too in a hardcore yeddy wave with BJP having 5 MLA’s , even padmanabhnagar  gave lead to krishan byre gowda . JDS with prof radha Krishna as their candidate and a noted educationist they polled about 27,000 votes , this time I am giving them around 20,000 votes . The AAP factor has been taken in and I guess they should take approximately 30-35,000 votes in bangalore south .

The highlight this time is more than 1.25 lakh votes  new votes have been polled compared to  2013 may . Big voting difference is coming up in BTM , over 24,000 more votes have been polled , are these minority pockets ? , need to check this .The best wave for Ananth was 1999 vajapayee wave where he polled 4.5 lakh votes  and all other elections his votes have been coming down , last time in 2009 BJP yeddy wave he got 4,37 lakh votes . This time in 2014 for best consideration we need to take up  Congress and BJP votes at 10.6 lakh votes shared between both .

Even if I give anath 1-1.2 lakh additional votes on account of  “Modi Factor” from  the last assembly poll in 2013 where he got 3,42,355 , despite he suffering from huge anti incumbency , minority  consolidation , disengaged BJP workers and general apathy he should best poll 4.6 - 4.8 lakh votes . That leaves congress-nandan  anywhere around 5.8- 6 lakh votes to factor . I believe it would be a miracle and need a mega wave for BJP to touch 5 lakhs votes !!!.

For congress from 4,23,806 they got in 2013 ,  the significant factor here is the 1.3 lakh votes of JDS and where would they go ? , traditionally  JDS votes would go to congress in lok sabha , this has been a observed trend . I believe we have polled anywhere 5 – 5.5 lakh votes . With 50,000 – 60,000 votes ear marked for JDS and AAP I believe nandan should sail through comfortably .

I have given significantly  more votes to BJP than they polled in 2013 , like in padmanabhnagar I have given them 70,000 votes from 53,000 they polled in 2013 , given them 95000 in bommanahalli from 86,000 , 50,000 in chickpet from 31,000 (Very unlikely for them to reach) , 60,000 in jayanagar from 43,000 in 2013 , 50,000 from 21000 in BTM !!!!!!! .

Adding to the  positive campaign a united congress ran and excellent social media & web campaign , nandan should sail through well .

	Votes Polled in 2013	Votes Polled in 2014	Diff In Votes
Govindraj Nagar	131237	141579	10342
Padmanabhnagar	128353	146054	17701
Bommanahally	174734	191109	16375
Chickpet	108814	120075	11261
Basavanagudi	103654	122999	19345
Vijayanagar	133197	144904	11707
Jayanagar	95565	111212	15647
BTM Layout	110486	135097	24611
	986040	1113029	126989

342355

495000

130796

	Congress 2013	Congress 2014	BJP 2013	BJP 2014	JDS 2013
Govindraj Nagar	72654	85000	30194	50000	20662
Padmanabhnagar	33557	55000	53680	70000	26272
Bommanahally	60700	75000	86552	95000	10621
Chickpet	44714	65000	31655	50000	24382
Basavanagudi	21588	50000	43683	60000	24163
Vijayanagar	76891	75000	44249	60000	4253
Jayanagar	43990	42000	31678	60000	12097
BTM Layout	69712	80000	20664	50000	8346
	423806	527000	342355	495000	130796

Nandan should poll anywhere  from 5.2 lakhs – 5.6 lakh votes  and sail home comfortably .

What do we want to see in the leader we vote ?

It is about the integrity in the Leader & What do we want to see in the leader we vote ?

Today’s Times of India carried a main sheet which had prominently featured modi , the message  is ill timed and what shook me was his  message about Women’s empowerment and safety !!!! . The advertisement would have counter effect on the campaign . I have been thinking ,  Is this Indian election about development ? , governance ? Corruption ? Woman’s rights ? or all of the above !! , hard to say ,there is a French saying “To Each His Own” , every voter looks  in his own way based on his immediate environment and people around him . Country has been debating and we have seen the diversity of the dialogue across all medias in the last few months .

Remember  Bill Clinton’s affair @ the white house with Monica Lewinsky  ? , Americans wanted their president to be man of impeccable character and quality and speak the truth . As ordinary mortals we always want our leaders to be high on morals and  honesty .  We look up to them as our ideals and mirror their styles , looks , speech and  sometimes  their qualities . 

10 years of running the fourth large economic system  Dr Man Mohan singh showed  impeccable character in different circumstances which included  Terrorist attacks , social unrest , price rise and inflation and drove the country  successfully to be a economic and  soft power globally . Dr Singh’s stature and acceptance globally across  all influential  political and business leaders amazed even the hardest critic of india .

We hear about Modi’s  new  marital status as married , earlier he himself proclaimed that he  has none one  to be corrupt , the treatment  meted out to his wife for last 40 years  is palpable . The poor lady will hog the headlines for the next few weeks till the election gets over . The issue is absolutely not about modi’s personal life , it is his brazenness in lying to the nation about the status . Not sure what else has this man kept away from people .

I remember few lines  Gandhi has said earlier about  Truth , Honesty and Character .

“Silence becomes cowardice when occasion demands speaking out the whole truth and acting accordingly.” 

The Roots of Violence: Wealth without work, Pleasure without conscience, Knowledge without character, Commerce without morality, Science without humanity, Worship without sacrifice, Politics without principles."

“A coward is incapable of exhibiting love; it is the prerogative of the brave.”

“Remember that all through history, there have been tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they seem invincible. But in the end, they always fall. Always.” 

“Power is of two kinds. One is obtained by the fear of punishment and the other by acts of love. Power based on love is a thousand times more effective and permanent than the one derived from fear of punishment.” 

Looks like fits well into the current frame of Modi politics  today in india . I did see a few tweets which were interesting as well a few of them are given below ,

1.   Can a man who lies about his marital status empower women? Twitter reacts angrily to Modi's marriage revelation h

A person who can't acknowledge and respect his own wife how does one expect him to respect women of the country?

Can Women of this Country trust a Man who stalks a woman, deprives his wife of her right? Vote against Modi

Narendra Modi's marriage to Jashodaben was a 'social formality': brother Reply 

So if Mr Modi did not disclose his marital status as " married" in Gujarat state elections, shouldn't he be disqualified as CM for lying?

I am single, so best man to fight graft: Narendra Modi

Marry a girl at 17. Admit she is his wife at 70. Sanghi culture.

This isn't abt his personal life just shows that Mr Modi lies, even abt his own wife. Imagine what he'd do to others

Joshnaben is my Wife, Finally Modi admits under oath. Anything 2 B'com PM.kept column blank during last 4 nominations

So now can we critique Mr. Modi for abandoning his wife? Or will his supporters have new logics to justify ?

Interesting to see how the urban  woman voters are going to react to this news , although this development has put BJP on the back foot .

Power of Positive vote

Power of Positive vote

Once again the debate rages in Bangalore south if   one should vote for “Modi” or else vote for a “Star candidate” goes on and on with each side strongly pitching .I have been  watching and  researching trends  for last few elections  in Karnataka and not much outside our state .

Bangalore south electorate comprises of a fairly  mixed cultures and languages but undoubtedly  it is the middle class kannadigas who  decide who their MP will be . Each household is connected in some way or the other to the IT industry of Bangalore . The biggest chunk of the IT professionals in India reside in Bangalore south . The IT professionals  clearly know what this industry has brought to Bangalore and also how the future of this city and quality of life will be shaped up by this industry .  This is  a connected  community and generally seen as anti establishment , more of  BJP and AAP supporters . But they clearly know the value of someone like Nandan will bring into the politics  of this country and  they have the first hand experience of seeing him  build a globally successful organization like Infosys . I would put this IT related voters numbers to around 1.5 – 1.7 lakh people .

For  a budding IT professionals & entrepreneurs , Nandan & narayan murthy are role models & native kannadigas as well !!! . In a society where role models are rare among kannadigas ,  Nandan and murthy duo have brought in the confidence and identity .   IT professionals adore  Bill Gates , Larry Ellison , Sergei Brin and Larry Page from Google , Vinod Khosla from  TIE  and understand clearly that these leaders have a thorough understanding and a systematic approach to problem solving .The success of Infosys always stands apart from a Indian IT professional point of view as this was a trend setter in many ways not only for IT but also for other large industries and governments.  Infosys showed the world the power of innovation in services , employee engagement and rewards . We look @ Infosys with pride not only as a Indian but as a proud bangalorean . The beauty was all about how to build success and share them with employees and stakeholders . The relationship Infosys built with its employees was that of trust and caring than hire and fire  followed by the other counterparts in IT industry . Nandan has a proven track record of building Infosys into  global corporation with 1.5 lakh plus employees and  equally good track record on the unique identity project .

The IT industry is seeing the second generation taking over the business and the first set of people who came into the industry are in early fifties and late forties !!!!. This entire generation moved up on their careers looking @ Murthy and Nandan as their role models and also every kannadiga took pride in looking up to them .  In fact  Bangalore destination as IT hub itself was tagged to murthy & Nandan  in the early days .  Today a IT professional from Bangalore commands higher value than his counterparts from chennai , Hyderabad or NCR .

People have never defeated a role model in the society  who has  built opportunities for society at large . There are many examples where voters have overwhelmingly elected   top successful business leaders .Voters also think that they will have a better understanding of issues about Infrastructure , education and governance .  

I believe as we go closer to the polling date the momentum is clearly with  Nandan  all the way !!!.